CIBOLA COUNTY, N.M. – Cibola County is beginning 2026 still locked in drought, and the numbers back up what many residents have felt on the ground: winter has not yet delivered the kind of widespread, sustained moisture that would meaningfully recharge the county’s water system.
As of Jan. 27, federal drought data shows 27,213 people in Cibola County – 100 percent of the population – are affected by drought, with no change from the previous week or month. The county remains split between Moderate Drought (D1) and Severe Drought (D2), with 31.42 percent of the county in D1 and 68.58 percent in D2.
That “no change” can be easy to overlook, but it is the most important part of the story to understand: it means the drought has become stable — not because conditions are improving, but because the county is still stuck in the same dry pattern.
How we got here: a very dry December on top of a dry year
Cibola didn’t enter the new year on a clean slate. It entered already behind.
Climate data shows December 2025 ranked as the 10th driest December on record over the past 131 years, finishing 0.72 inches below normal. When the entire year is added up, January through December 2025 ranked as the 17th driest year-to-date in the same 131-year record, coming in 3.55 inches below normal.
That matters because winter is supposed to be Cibola’s recharge season — the time when mountain snow builds up and later melts into spring runoff, helping refill reservoirs, strengthen river flow, and support groundwater. When the year closes out dry and winter starts slow, the whole system feels it.
What Happened in January?
January opened with Cibola County still fully inside drought, and it stayed that way through the end of the month. Drought.gov data accessed Jan. 27 shows 27,213 people – 100% of the county – remained affected by drought, with 31.42% of the county in Moderate Drought (D1) and 68.58% in Severe Drought (D2), unchanged from the prior week and month.
That stability doesn’t mean conditions were fine – it means the drought did not loosen its grip.
Precipitation maps from early-to-mid January showed much of the Grants–El Malpais–Cibola area ran below normal over the prior 30 days, often closer to about half to three-quarters of typical precipitation, with some pockets nearer a quarter to half. Despite some spotty storms, large parts of the county remained with little or no measurable moisture.
Those patterns showed clearly in Cibola’s local water indicators.
Weekly monitoring through the month showed Bluewater Lake continuing a gradual decline from 4,489 acre-feet on Jan. 5 down to 4,441 acre-feet by Jan. 23, where it held through Jan. 26.
The Rio San Jose at Acoma Pueblo told a similar story of low-end consistency, easing from around 1.89 feet early in the month to 1.85 feet by Jan. 20, then holding there through late January.
As a major winter storm moved across New Mexico, snowpack at the Rice Park SNOTEL site climbed from 1.2 inches of snow water equivalent on Jan. 23 to 1.8 inches by Jan. 25, before settling to 1.7 inches on Jan. 26. That rise pushed the basin to roughly about half of normal for the season, a meaningful improvement compared to early January even though it remains below the seasonal median and far short of a typical peak.
Data sources used in this report: Drought.gov drought indicators and county impact estimates; long-term climate rankings for December and 2025; U.S. Geological Survey readings for Bluewater Lake and the Rio San Jose at Acoma Pueblo; NRCS SNOTEL Rice Park snow water equivalent and basin percent-of-median tracking; Cibola Citizen historical water monitoring reports.