CIBOLA COUNTY, N.M. – Cibola County closed August with another round of monsoon storms in the forecast and a mixed picture for local water conditions.
The Rio San Jose ended the month higher than it began, while Bluewater Lake continued its steady decline despite summer rainfall. With September beginning, forecasts show additional precipitation possible across the county, giving the monsoon another opportunity to add moisture before the summer rainy season begins to wind down.
Bluewater Lake
According to provisional U.S. Geological Survey data, Bluewater Lake measured 7,364.44 feet on Sept. 1, down from 7,364.52 feet on Aug. 25.
That represents a weekly decline of 0.08 feet, or just under one inch.
Looking across August, Bluewater measured 7,365.00 feet on Aug. 2, meaning the lake lost approximately 0.56 feet, or 6.7 inches, during the month.
Bluewater Lake stood at 7,368.77 feet on Jan. 1, putting the Sept. 1 reading approximately 4.33 feet below its level at the beginning of 2026.
Rio San Jose
The Rio San Jose at Acoma Pueblo measured 1.99 feet on Sept. 1, according to provisional USGS data, unchanged from the Aug. 25 reading.
The Rio San Jose measured 1.95 feet on Aug. 2, compared with 1.99 feet on Sept. 1, an increase of 0.04 feet during the month.
A USGS field measurement taken Aug. 11 recorded the Rio San Jose at 1.98 feet, providing another point of comparison during the month.
Precipitation Across Cibola
The final days of August brought renewed monsoon activity and repeated concern for heavy rainfall, even though precipitation remained highly uneven across Cibola County.
Drought.gov's sevenday precipitation map, valid Aug. 28, shows generally light accumulated rainfall across much of the county, with broad areas receiving roughly 0.01 to 0.5 inches and isolated pockets receiving more. The map reinforces a pattern seen repeatedly this summer: countywide precipitation can appear modest even when individual thunderstorms are capable of producing much heavier rainfall over a small area.
That distinction became important again as the month ended.
On Sunday, Aug. 30, the National Weather Service placed much of western New Mexico, including Cibola County, under a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall, with scattered to numerous thunderstorms expected. Forecasters warned that repeated storms could produce flash flooding, particularly in arroyos, low-water crossings and locations receiving multiple rounds of rain.
The wet pattern continued Monday. Grants had an 80% chance of precipitation Aug. 31, with forecasters expecting showers during the earlier part of the day followed by additional thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. Most of Cibola County was forecast to receive approximately one-tenth to one-half inch, although locally higher amounts were possible beneath stronger storms.
Storm chances continued into Tuesday, Sept. 1, particularly between the Continental Divide and New Mexico's central mountain chain.
The National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center's seven-day forecast for Aug. 31 through Sept. 7 shows substantially more precipitation possible across portions of Cibola County than was recorded during the previous seven days.
As always with monsoon precipitation, actual totals will depend heavily on where thunderstorms develop.
The monsoon remains active, and the coming weeks will help determine how much of this summer's rainfall translates into longer-lasting improvements to local water conditions.
Water data courtesy of the United States Geological Survey. Temperature, precipitation and drought information courtesy of Drought.gov, the National Weather Service, the U.S. Drought Monitor, the Climate Prediction Center and the New Mexico Environment Department.
Bluewater lower, Rio San Jose higher, monsoon expected to continue