CIBOLA COUNTY, N.M. – As Cibola County prepares for another winter storm system, current water data shows a landscape still firmly under drought, with only modest signs of improvement.
Forecast models suggest light to moderate precipitation over the coming week, at a time where reservoir levels, river flow, and mountain snowpack remain well below seasonal norms.
The National Weather Service’s seven-day quantitative precipitation forecast for Feb. 16–20 projects roughly a quarter- to a half-inch of liquid precipitation across much of the Grants and El Malpais area, with somewhat higher totals – closer to a half- to three-quarters of an inch – favored west and northwest toward the Zuni Mountains.
As of Feb. 12, the U.S. Drought Monitor shows 31.42 percent of Cibola County in Moderate Drought (D1) and 68.58 percent in Severe Drought (D2), meaning 100 percent of the county remains classified in drought.
Bluewater Lake
Bluewater Lake measured 7,368.41 feet in elevation on Feb. 16, down slightly from 7,368.44 feet one week earlier.
A month-over-month comparison shows the lake has declined from 7,368.63 feet on Jan. 17 to its current level, reflecting a steady but gradual winter drawdown.
No measurable rise has yet been observed in response to recent storms.
Rio San Jose
The Rio San Jose at Acoma Pueblo measured 1.85 feet on Feb. 16, unchanged from both the previous week and from mid-January.
The river has now held near this level for several consecutive weeks, indicating stable but shallow winter base flow with no significant storm-driven increase.
Snowpack
Snowpack conditions in the Zuni/Bluewater River Basin remain well below normal for mid-February.
Data from the NRCS SNOTEL site at Rice Park, elevation 8,480 feet, showed snow water equivalent at 1.6 inches on Feb. 12 and 1.5 inches on Feb. 16. The median for this time of year ranges between 4.8 and 5.0 inches, placing the basin at roughly 30 to 33 percent of normal. With a typical seasonal peak of 6.0 inches occurring in early March, the basin remains far behind where it would normally stand heading into the heart of runoff season.
All taken together, the data suggests that while February storms may provide incremental gains, Cibola County’s broader water picture remains one of persistent dryness.