GRANTS, N.M. – New scientific and professional analysis from the Institute for the Study of War and the Critical Threats Project describes a war that has shifted from intense fighting to a mix of conditional discussions after the United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire on February 7. Since, conditions have been tense with continued violence in other regions of the middle east. According to the update, Iran and the United States are approaching ceasefire negotiations with fundamentally different goals, creating friction that has already pushed talks toward a stalemate. Iran is seeking a broad agreement that ends the threat of war and addresses issues like damages and wider regional conditions, while the U.S. delegation is described as pursuing a narrower set of demands tied to the current conflict – including de-escalation mechanisms around the Strait of Hormuz and secondary issues such as detainees.
Two people briefed on negotiations told the Financial Times the April 11 talks reached a “stalemate” over the Strait’s status.
The Strait remains central because Iran is described as using the threat of naval mines to force ships into Iranian territorial waters, where the update says Iran is extracting “protection fees.” The ISW said this as illegal under maritime law and says Iran warned of a “hazardous area” spanning 1,394 square kilometers that includes normal shipping lanes.
The U.S. response, according to the ISW, is two-track: mine-clearing to reopen the standard route, and a new enforcement action aimed directly at Iranian trade.
ISW reports that President Donald Trump stated April 11 that the U.S. is “starting the process of clearing out” the strait, and that U.S. Navy destroyers transited to support mine-clearing, with U.S. officials saying safe-passage routes would be shared with civilian shipping as soon as possible.
Separately, ISW reports that U.S. Central Command implemented a blockade at 10 a.m. ET on April 13 on vessels of all nations that enter or depart Iranian ports and coastal areas, while stating it will not impede freedom of navigation for ships
Negotiations Stall as U.S. Moves to Blockade Hormuz and Tighten Pressure on Iranian Shipping transiting to or from non-Iranian ports.
The report says more than 15 U.S. naval vessels are supporting the blockade. It also reports that at least two oil tankers bound for China turned around after the blockade began.
While Iran’s attacks on Gulf states are described as having declined during the April 7 ceasefire period, the update says Iranian-backed Iraqi militias are likely responsible for at least some recent drone attacks against Gulf countries. Bahrain reported intercepting seven “Iranian” drones on April 13 and summoned Iraq’s charge d’affaires, while Saudi Arabia summoned the Iraqi ambassador the day before, according to the report.
The most active battlefield since ceasefire is in southern Lebanon and northern Israel.
Hezbollah claimed dozens of attacks into Israel in the April 10–13 window, including rocket and drone strikes, while Israeli forces continued airstrikes and ground operations. ISW reports that Israeli forces are close to full operational control of Bint Jbeil, a strategically important town, and that Israeli officials have described plans tied to an expanded security zone and continued operations.
The Cibola Citizen will continue to provide updates as page space allows.
In Remembrance
The following U.S. service members were identified in the material provided as having died in the line of duty as a result of recent military action in the Middle East. The Cibola County community honors their service and holds their families in our thoughts.
KC-135 crash in Iraq (6)
• Maj. John A.
Klinner
• Capt. Ariana G.
Savino
• Tech. Sgt. Ashley B. Pruitt
• Capt. Seth R.
Koval
• Capt. Curtis J.
Angst
• Tech. Sgt. Tyler H. Simmons Drone attack in Kuwait (6)
• Capt. Cody A.
Khork
• Sgt. 1st Class Noah L. Tietjens • Sgt. 1st Class Nicole M. Amor
• Sgt. Declan J.
Coady
• Maj. Jeffrey O’Brien
• Chief Warrant Officer 3 Robert Marzan Attack in Saudi Arabia (1)
• Sgt. Benjamin Pennington