GRANTS, N.M. – The Iran war remains in a tense and uncertain phase, with Iran signaling it may escalate fighting if negotiations do not meet its demands, while Iranian-backed groups continue to pressure U.S. partners across the region.
According to the Institute for the Study of War and the Critical Threats Project, the Iranian regime is signaling that it would rather continue or expand fighting with the United States and regional partners than make major concessions on its central demands. Those demands include lifting the U.S. naval blockade and sanctions, recognition of Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz, and an end to regional cooperation against Iranian interests.
ISW-CTP reported that Iranian officials told the Wall Street Journal that the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps has considered escalation options, including preemptive strikes on internet cables in the Persian Gulf, efforts to foment unrest in countries with Shia communities such as Kuwait and Bahrain, and possible ground operations in Kuwait. ISW-CTP assessed that publicizing those threats may itself be intended to pressure the United States and its partners.
Iran Prepares for Possible Renewed Fighting
According to ISW-CTP, Iran is also preparing to make any renewed fighting more costly for the United States. The Wall Street Journal reported that the IRGC used the calm created by the memorandum of understanding to coordinate attack plans with partners and proxies in Iraq, Yemen and Lebanon.
ISW-CTP reported that Arab intelligence officials said Iranian advisers discussed plans with regional partners, including possible confrontation with Saudi Arabia involving Iranianbacked Iraqi militias and the Houthis. The IRGC reportedly helped move missiles, naval weapons and drone launchers around the Red Sea, while also providing the Houthis with intelligence and target lists involving Saudi ports and energy facilities.
The purpose, according to ISW-CTP, is to raise the cost of the war for the United States and its allies and force them to accept Iranian demands, especially over the Strait of Hormuz.
Iraq Tries to Rein in Militias
Iraq is becoming one of the most important fronts in the wider conflict.
According to ISW-CTP, Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al Zaydi’s government appears to be preparing for possible action against Iranianbacked militias if they do not disarm by a Sept. 30 deadline. Iraqi sources have described plans to isolate militia operation centers, restrict movement and supplies, and possibly retake Jurf al Sakhr, a Kataib Hezbollah stronghold in Babil Province.
ISW-CTP reported that Kataib Hezbollah has blocked the Iraqi government from exercising sovereignty over Jurf al Sakhr for more than a decade. The group has used the area to store weapons and launch attacks against U.S. and foreign targets in Iraq and the region.
The Iraqi Counter Terrorism Service also arrested Abbas Hussein Yaqubi, a Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba reconnaissance unit leader, in Dhi Qar Province on Aug. 17, according to ISW-CTP. Yaqubi also served as the Popular Mobilization Forces Baghdad Belt Operations Command intelligence director. ISWCTP said the arrest may be part of a broader effort to prepare for operations against militias.
Militia Resistance Inside Iraq
Those Iraqi disarmament efforts face serious resistance.
According to ISW-CTP, some Iranian-backed Iraqi actors are trying to portray the militias as defenders of Iraq’s sovereignty to justify keeping their weapons. The Badr Organization Political Bureau head criticized disarmament efforts and argued that no one, including the Iraqi prime minister, should disarm the militias because doing so could cause internal strife.
ISW-CTP reported that this argument ignores the militias’ own role in destabilizing Iraq by attacking U.S. interests and neighboring countries. Those attacks undermine Iraqi sovereignty and make it harder for Baghdad to stay out of Iran’s war with the United States and Israel.
ISW-CTP also reported claims from Saudi media that some Iraqi armed factions may be planning to assassinate Iraqi Supreme Judicial Council President Faiq Zaidan because of the government’s disarmament and anti-corruption efforts. The report has not been independently confirmed in the notes provided, but it shows the seriousness of the tensions around militia disarmament.
In Remembrance
The following 17 U.S. service members have been publicly identified as having died in service to our nation during the current conflict. The Cibola County community honors their sacrifice and holds their loved ones, friends, and fellow service members in our thoughts.
Port of Shuaiba, Kuwait — March 1, 2026 Maj. Jeffrey O’Brien Capt. Cody Khork Chief Warrant Officer 3 Robert Marzan Master Sgt. Nicole Amor Sgt. 1st Class Noah Tietjens Sgt. Declan Coady Prince Sultan Air Base,
Saudi Arabia — March 1, 2026 Sgt. Benjamin N. Pennington
Western Iraq — March 12, 2026
Maj. John A. Klinner Capt. Ariana G. Savino Tech. Sgt. Ashley B. Pruitt Capt. Seth R. Koval Capt. Curtis J. Angst Tech. Sgt. Tyler H. Simmons
Muwaffaq Salti Air Base, Jordan — July 17, 2026
1st Lt. Tyler James Feehan Pvt. Isabella Gonzales Sgt Angel S Rampersand Erbil Air Base, Iraq — July 19, 2026 Sgt. Michael Emmanuel Swinton