GRANTS, N.M. – The Iran war remains in an uneasy diplomatic phase, but new attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and continued disagreement over Lebanon are again raising the risk of escalation.
According to the Institute for the Study of War and the Critical Threats Project, the Lebanese government appears to be implementing the June 26 Israel-Lebanon-United States framework agreement carefully, with its main goal being stability inside Lebanon. ISW-CTP reported that Lebanese officials support the framework as a way to end conflict, but may avoid steps that could trigger a wider internal confrontation with Hezbollah.
According to ISW-CTP, Hezbollah leaders have threatened that efforts by the Lebanese Armed Forces to disarm the group could lead to civil war. Lebanese media reported that the Lebanese Armed Forces are reluctant to establish “pilot zones” for disarming Hezbollah north of the Litani River until Israeli forces withdraw from Lebanese territory.
That dispute is now affecting the larger U.S.-Iran process. According to CBS News, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tuesday that Iran will not resume negotiations with the United States until Israel stops its attacks in Lebanon and withdraws from Lebanese territory. Araghchi said there would be “no final agreement” with the United States unless that withdrawal takes place.
Israel has repeatedly said it reserves the right to defend itself against Hezbollah. According to ISW-CTP, unidentified Israeli security officials told Israeli media that Hezbollah is attempting to reconstitute its forces in southern Lebanon. ISW-Iran CTP also reported that the IDF continued striking Hezbollah fighters and infrastructure in southern Lebanon on July 5 and 6.
The Strait of Hormuz also remains a central flashpoint.
According to the United States Department of Treasury, at least three tankers trying to transit the strait appeared to come under attack Tuesday. Qatar condemned an attack on the Qatari-flagged Al-Rakiyat, calling it a violation of international law and a threat to global energy supplies. Saudi Arabia also condemned an Iranian strike on one of its vessels, the Wedyan, while it was transiting the strait.
As a result, Office of Foreign Assets Control is revoking the license that allowed the production, delivery, and sale of Iranian oil through August 21, according to reporting form MSNBC citing an unnamed official in the Treasury Department.
The waiver had been part of the memorandum of understanding negotiated last month, and its revocation cuts off a major source of revenue Iran had secured during the diplomatic process.
Iran did not immediately claim all of the attacks, according to CBS News, though Iranian state television said at least one vessel had ignored warnings from Iranian forces.
According to ISW-CTP, Iran had already been frustrated with delays in implementing parts of the agreement, including economic relief and the release of frozen assets. ISW-CTP reported that Iran has also resisted launching deeper nuclear talks before those economic provisions are fulfilled.
President Donald Trump, speaking in Turkey during a NATO summit, warned Iran to “make a deal” or the United States would “finish the job,” according to CBS News. Araghchi responded that Iran would not resume final negotiations if threats continue.
Lebanon remains a sticking point, Hezbollah remains armed and active, Iran is pressing for economic relief, the United States is trying to preserve leverage, and the Strait of Hormuz continues to threaten global energy markets.
Editor’s Note: At 3:15 p.m. MST on July 7 the United States Central Command issued the following statement: “U.S. Central Command forces have begun launching a series of powerful strikes against Iran to impose heavy costs for targeting and attacking commercial shipping crewed by innocent civilians in an international waterway. The U.S. strikes are in response to Iranian attacks on three commercial vessels that were transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s demonstrated aggression was unwarranted, dangerous, and a clear violation of the ceasefire.”
In Remembrance
The following 13 U.S. service members gave their lives for our Freedom in this conflict. The Cibola County community honors their service and holds their families in our thoughts.
Drone attack in Kuwait March 1, 2026
• Capt. Cody A. Khork
• Sgt. 1st Class Noah L. Tietjens
• Sgt. 1st Class Nicole M. Amor
• Sgt. Declan J. Coady
• Maj. Jeffrey O’Brien
• Chief Warrant Officer 3 Robert Marzan Attack in Saudi Arabia March 1, 2026
• Sgt. Benjamin Pennington KC-135 crash in Iraq March 12, 2026
• Maj. John A. Klinner
• Capt. Ariana G. Savino
• Tech. Sgt. Ashley B. Pruitt
• Capt. Seth R. Koval
• Capt. Curtis J. Angst
• Tech. Sgt. Tyler H. Simmons