GRANTS, N.M. - On January 22, 2026, the Cibola County Board of Commissioners convened for a two hour meeting in which they addressed the significant economic impact that the potential closure of the Milan Correctional Facility will have on Cibola County.
Potential Correctional Facility Closure Effects
According to a report presented by UNM students Andrew Bride and Ian Stroud the Milan Correctional Facility, was opened in 1993, and quickly became one of the largest employers in the county, providing stable jobs and supporting local businesses. However, the facility has experienced significant disruptions, particularly after the Department of Justice's actions in 2016, which raised questions about the future of the facility and the economic stability of the region.
Utilizing specialized modeling software known as IMPLAN to analyze the economic impact of the facility's closure, Bride and Stroud this software is widely recognized and used by various governmental and academic institutions. They cautioned the audience that the findings should be interpreted with care, emphasizing the importance of understanding the general direction of the economic impacts rather than focusing solely on precise values.
The presentation highlighted two critical types of impacts: the direct effects of employment and payroll losses resulting from the facility's closure. Bride and Stroud aimed to provide clear, factual information that would assist decision- makers in considering the broader economic implications for the community.
The direct effects include $16,000,000 annual payroll and associated facility employment changes. It indirectly effects the supply chain impacts on businesses providing goods and serves. Induced effects include household spending reductions across retail, housing, and healthcare.
The total economic loss is expected to be $20.4M, with a 2.36% Gross Domestic Product (GDP) decrease, and 24.45 additional Full-time equivalent (FTE) jobs induced losses beyond direct jobs. Tax revenue reduction for the county will be $36,000, the state will be $545,000, and federal will be $3.02M. The analysis shows that owner occupied housing will have the largest output loss, hospitals and healthcare will have the second largest decrease, and the limited service restaurants will experience the third largest loss.
This will affect 180 jobs.
Bride and Stroud suggested potential mitigation approaches, which include high multiplier industry recruitment. Agriculture: tree not, fruit, vegetable farming rank among top industries. Transportation and logistics passenger transit, trucking, warehousing show high multipliers. Supply chain integration resource alignment local inputs must match targets industry requirements, upstream downstream processing facilities, suppliers, services needed. Transition support mechanisms worker assistance job replacement, retraining, relocation support. Business support technical assistance, working capital access. Facility repurposing manufacturing, office, or community use.
Notably, if the correctional facility closes, what is costing $70 a night for each person in there, will cost $150 a night, not including how much it will cost to transport them to those facilities.
Cibola County Manager Kate Fletcher stated, “This year is different. There’s a different atmosphere in a different environment and a different feel up there [in Santa Fe] about this bill… It’s not as easy to change their minds. Before I was able to talk to the representatives, talk to the Senators, and they would ask questions and we would have a good conversation… This year, I do believe that [it is] more likely… to pass. [I] believe that this bill is going to pass the house… It just passed its committee hearing.”
Key Numbers
The key numbers of the potential Milan Correctional Facility Closure are as follows.
Total Economic Loss: $20.4M, combined output reduction ($16M direct payroll + $4.42M multiplier effects) GDP Impact: 2.36%, percentage decrease of estimated 2023 Cibola County GDP.
GDP Reduction: $18.66 million, total modeled economic contract. Induced Job Losses: 24.45 FTE, additional positions affected beyond direct facility jobs.
Direct annual payroll: $16 million, facilities direct contribution before closure.
Federal: $3.02 million, income and payroll taxes.
State: $545,000, income and gross receipts.
County: $36,000, sales tax (18,626) + property tax ($14,298) Total: $3.6 million, combined revenue loss across all levels.