County remains 100% in drought as late-winter precipitation collapses, temperatures run hot, and Zuni snowpack disappears heading into spring
CIBOLA COUNTY, N.M. – Three months into 2026, Cibola County’s drought story is becoming clearer – and more concerning.
The U.S. Drought Monitor continues to classify 100% of the county in drought, with 31.42% in Moderate Drought (D1) and 68.58% in Severe Drought (D2). That translates to 27,213 people affected, with no change since last week or last month.
As data, the drought map looks steady. But on the ground, March has shown what that really looks like: the county has been running both drier and warmer than normal, and one of Bluewater Basin’s most important springtime supports – Zuni Mountain snowpack – effectively vanished right as the runoff season should have been peaking.
Cibola County recorded the 39th driest February on record (132year record), coming in 0.35 inches below normal.
For the year so far, January– February 2026 ranks as the 59th driest year-todate, 0.33 inches below normal. Those numbers aren’t “record-breaking,” but are abnormal for this time of the year.
March is Hot and Dry
That pattern of heat and dryness showed up sharply in the last month of weather maps and data from the Grants-Milan Municipal Airport.
A 30-day percent-ofnormal precipitation map from the US Drought Monitor placed the Grants–El Malpais–Cibola area in dark brown, indicating the county received only about a quarter of normal precipitation – or less – over the past month.
At the same time, a 30day maximum temperature map from USDM showed much of the county running about 6 to 8 degrees warmer than normal on average for daily highs.
Cibola’s weekly water monitoring through March has matched the maps.
Bluewater Lake has continued a slow but steady decline, dropping from 7,368.35 feet in late February to 7,368.29 feet on March 2; 7,368.26 feet on March 9; 7,368.09 feet on March 16; and 7,367.97 feet on March 23. These are not dramatic drops week to week, but they matter because the lake has shown no meaningful rebound tied to winter storms.
The Rio San Jose at Acoma Pueblo has stayed almost perfectly flat, holding around 1.86 feet for most of the month, with only a slight increase to 1.87 feet by March 23 – a small change that still leaves the river in shallow, drought-conditioned winter flow.
Snowpack Collapses
The most consequential shift this month, however, came from the mountains where already limited snowpack effectively disappeared.
In early March, snowpack at the Rice Park SNOTEL site (8,480 feet) collapsed from already-low levels to essentially nothing. On March 2, snow water equivalent was 0.1 inches – about 2% of normal compared to a median of 5.4 inches for that date.
By March 9 and again by March 16, the basin was reported at 0.0 inches of snow water equivalent, and it remained at 0.0 in the March 23 update. In a typical year, early March is when the basin approaches its seasonal peak and begins feeding spring runoff.
With snowpack absent, the spring recharge window narrows dramatically – leaving Bluewater and the Rio San Jose far more dependent on spring rains and, later, the summer monsoon.
A 7-day precipitation map (data valid March 5) showed most of the Grants–El Malpais–Cibola County area essentially blank – near-zero precipitation, roughly 0 to 0.01 inches – with only a small, faint pocket northwest of Grants picking up light moisture.
Meanwhile, local observations at the Grants– Milan Municipal Airport during the month stretch captured the kind of pattern residents have been feeling: clear skies, extremely low humidity at times, and strong afternoon winds.
Dry Conditions Raise Fire Concerns
Cibola County and multiple local jurisdictions including the Village of Milan have already moved into burn restrictions, and the broader region is tightening as well.
Cibola and Milan’s fire restrictions prevent all open burning and fire pits.
Bluewater Lake State Park has increased to Stage II Fire Restrictions, which means all campfires, charcoal, fireworks, explosives, chainsaws, torches, welding, off-road driving, and other spark- or flame-producing activity are prohibited. Smoking is limited to enclosed vehicles, buildings, or cleared developed recreation sites. Engines must have a spark arrester.
The Bureau of Land Management announced fire restrictions beginning March 27 for public lands in the Socorro Field Office (Socorro and Catron counties), citing wildfire risk.
Cibola County Fire Command affects all of Cibola County except the Bluewater State Park and City of Grants who has its own fire restriction.
Drought Impacts on Agriculture
Drought also continues to cover Cibola’s working landscape.
Federal drought-impact estimates still place 448 acres of hay and 30 acres of haylage inside drought classifications, along with an estimated 10,281 cattle and 3,026 sheep located in droughtaffected areas.
Those numbers are courtesy of the United States Department of Agriculture and do not mean every producer is impacted equally, but they reflect the broader truth of a countywide drought footprint: forage recovery becomes more fragile, water reliability becomes more uncertain, and the margin for error shrinks heading into the hottest, windiest part of the year.
With the Zuni/Bluewater Basin snowpack effectively exhausted, spring rain matters more than usual. If April stays warm and dry, the county is likely to lean even harder on the monsoon as the next meaningful opportunity for replenishment.
Data sources used in this report: U.S. Drought Monitor / Drought.gov county statistics and drought classifications; NOAA climate rankings for February and year-to-date precipitation; Drought.gov precipitation and temperature anomaly maps (30-day percent of normal precipitation; 30-day departure from normal maximum temperature; 7-day precipitation totals); U.S. Geological Survey data for Bluewater Lake and the Rio San Jose at Acoma Pueblo; NRCS SNOTEL Rice Park snow water equivalent; Cibola Citizen water monitoring reports published March 4, March 11, March 18, and March 25; regional fire restriction information from the Bureau of Land Management and local burn restriction notices.