Extreme drought expands as Cibola moves toward summer
CIBOLA COUNTY, N.M. – Cibola County is entering summer with drought still covering every part of the county, and the latest federal data shows the drought has deepened since the spring.
According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, 27,213 people in Cibola County – 100% of the county’s population - remain affected by drought, with no change from the previous week or month. But the intensity of that drought has shifted. Severe Drought (D2) now covers 37.05% of the county, while Extreme Drought (D3) covers 62.95%.
No part of Cibola County is listed as drought-free.
That marks a sharper drought picture than earlier this year. The county moved through winter and early spring with all of its land in drought, but the share of extreme drought has now expanded to nearly two-thirds of Cibola County. The change reflects what the county’s water monitoring has shown for months: the region did not receive enough winter snowpack, spring runoff never meaningfully developed, and scattered spring precipitation has not been enough to reverse the broader drying trend.
May itself was not dramatically dry on paper. Federal climate rankings show May 2026 was the 55th wettest May on record over the past 132 years, finishing just 0.02 inches below normal. But that near-normal month came after a dry winter and a difficult spring. January through May ranked as the 35th driest start to a year in the 132year record, with precipitation running 1.39 inches below normal.
That is the story behind this month’s drought report. May brought some moisture, but it arrived after the county had already lost its best chance for natural spring recharge. A few light storms can help grasses in certain areas, settle dust for a day, or briefly improve surface conditions. They do not replace a missing snowpack season, and they have not stopped the county’s main reservoir from declining.
Bluewater Lake continued its steady downward trend through May and into mid-June. The lake measured 7,367.05 feet in elevation on May 5, then dropped to 7,366.91 feet on May 12, 7,366.72 feet on May 19, 7,366.57 feet on May 26, 7,366.39 feet on June 2, 7,366.19 feet on June 9, and 7,366.02 feet by June 16.
The weekly changes are gradual, but the direction has been consistent. Bluewater has not shown a sustained rebound because the Zuni/Bluewater Basin did not produce meaningful spring runoff. Winter snowpack remained weak, disappeared early, and left little stored mountain moisture available to feed the reservoir as temperatures warmed.
The Rio San Jose has been steadier, but still modest. At the Acoma Pueblo gauge, the river held near 1.92 feet through much of May and early June before measuring 1.91 feet on June 16. Through the first half of the year, the river has generally stayed within a narrow range, showing stable base flow but little sign of a larger recharge event moving through the watershed.
That difference between stability and recovery is important. The Rio San Jose has not fallen sharply, but it also has not risen in a way that would suggest the county has turned a corner. Bluewater Lake continues to decline, and the drought map has grown more severe.
The precipitation picture has been uneven. Drought.gov maps during May showed some localized improvement compared with the driest stretches of March and April. Some parts of southern and southeastern Cibola County received closer to normal, or even above-normal, precipitation over recent 30-day periods. Areas north and west of Grants continued to lag behind. The result is a county with pockets of short-term improvement, but no widespread recovery.
By mid-June, heat was becoming a larger part of the story. Average daytime highs across the Grants and El Malpais area were generally in the 80s to low 90s, and in some areas those highs were running 4 to 6 degrees above normal. Above-normal heat increases evaporation from reservoirs and soils, dries grasses and brush faster, and raises the pressure on a landscape already carrying severe and extreme drought.
That pressure is now showing up in fire restrictions.
The Cibola National Forest and National Grasslands announced Stage II Fire Restrictions for the Mt. Taylor Ranger District beginning June 18 at 8 a.m. The order is intended to reduce the risk of humancaused wildfires during high fire danger and severe fire weather conditions. Under Stage II restrictions, campfires, stove fires, charcoal, coal and briquettes are prohibited. Smoking is limited to enclosed vehicles, buildings, developed recreation sites, or cleared areas. Motor vehicle use off National Forest System roads is also restricted except in limited circumstances.
Additional restrictions apply from 10 a.m. to 6 p.m. to activities that can generate sparks or heat, including chainsaw and internal-combustion equipment use for woodcutting, welding, torch operation, blasting, and use of explosives under special authorization. The order is scheduled to remain in effect until Aug. 31 unless it is rescinded earlier.
The fire restrictions follow the same pattern that has shaped Cibola’s water outlook all year: a dry winter, a weak snowpack season, limited spring moisture, and warmer weather arriving as the county moves into summer. That combination has left forests, grasslands, and open country more vulnerable as recreation, woodcutting, ranch work, and travel increase.
Forest health is also part of the larger drought picture. A statewide forest health report found that tree deaths tripled across New Mexico in 2025 during a year marked by heat and drought, with beetle-killed conifer forest increasing sharply on national forest lands. The full effects vary by location, but the finding reinforces the same concern seen in local water and fire data: drought stress does not stay in one category. It affects reservoirs, rivers, vegetation, forests, fire behavior, and the work people do on the land.
Agriculture remains inside the drought footprint as well. Federal estimates continue to place 448 acres of hay and 30 acres of haylage in drought conditions in Cibola County, along with an estimated 10,281 cattle and 3,026 sheep. These figures do not mean every producer is affected in the same way, but they reflect the countywide reach of the drought. When severe and extreme drought cover the map, forage recovery becomes more uncertain, water reliability becomes more important, and the margin for the summer season narrows.
The May drought report lands at a complicated point in the year. There has been some recent moisture, and some parts of the county have done better than they did during the driest weeks of spring. The Rio San Jose remains steady, and the atmosphere has shown occasional signs of becoming more active heading toward summer.
But the larger story remains unchanged. Bluewater Lake continues to decline. The winter snowpack did not provide spring recharge. Extreme drought now covers most of Cibola County. Temperatures are rising. Fire restrictions are expanding.
As June continues, the county’s attention turns toward the summer monsoon. Scattered showers may help in small ways, but meaningful improvement will require repeated, widespread rainfall. Until that pattern develops, drought remains one of the defining stories of 2026 in Cibola County.
Data sources used in this report: U.S. Drought Monitor and Drought.gov county drought statistics; NOAA climate rankings for May and year-to-date precipitation; U.S. Geological Survey data for Bluewater Lake and the Rio San Jose at Acoma Pueblo; Drought.gov temperature and precipitation maps; Cibola Citizen water monitoring reports published May 6, May 13, May 19, May 27, June 3, June 10 and June 17; Cibola National Forest and National Grasslands Stage II Fire Restriction notice for the Mt. Taylor Ranger District; New Mexico Forestry Division and U.S. Forest Service forest health survey information.