Drought conditions in Cibola County are back on the rise after several months of decline. Even when conditions were improving, the United States Department of Agriculture still had Cibola County officially declared as being “in drought.” This designation has not gone away. With drought conditions slightly worsening, the US Climate Prediction Center is increasing the size of what they expect Cibola’s drought will look like over the next several months, covering a large chunk in the eastern half of Cibola County.
Drought conditions worsened slightly over the month. Despite this, January 2023 was the eighth wettest January in 129 years of drought tracking. January brought 0.98 more inches of rain than normal when compared to 129 years of drought tracking in the area that makes up Cibola County, according to the National Integrated Drought System.
Drought Conditions worsened to the point where 6,140 people in Cibola are once again in drought areas. This is a 45.7 percent increase from December. This increase put 22.6 percent of people within Cibola in drought, a seven percent increase from last month.
While the east, and especially the northeast portion of Cibola is facing an increase to drought conditions, the southwest portion of Cibola remains abnormally dry but not in drought conditions. Currently, only 70.2 percent of the county is in drought. Drought means the area is abnormally dry, creating conditions that make agricultural growing more difficult.
Drought conditions are getting worse in the county with 22.56 percent of the county being in moderate drought. This is an increase from December, where only 15.48 percent of the county was in this drought designation. 0.39 percent of Cibola County, a sliver in the far northeast, is currently in severe drought. This is the same as December.
The USDA tracks two categories as the worst levels of drought in the county: “Extreme” and “Exceptional” drought. Today, zero percent of Cibola County is in either of those categories.
The northeast area is where researchers at the USDA and the US Climate Predictions Center are most concerned drought will persist.
Current Drought Rating
The later months of 2022 saw an increase to precipitation which helped to bring Cibola out of serious drought conditions. Despite continued precipitation through January, Cibola’s drought conditions slowly worsened over the month.
According to the United States Department of Agriculture, 101 acres of hay are estimated to be in drought. This is up from 69 acres in December. Seven acres of haylage is in drought. This is up from five acres in December and November. The USDA estimates that 2,319 cattle and 683 sheep are in drought across Cibola. This is up from 1,591 and 468, respectively, in December.
Parts of Cibola County are not currently in drought, but according to the Climate Prediction Center, this is not expected to last as drought conditions appear to be worsening across the county. This prediction comes even though January is the eighth wettest January on record, setting Cibola up for a tough drought year.
“Exceptional Drought” Tracking
Cibola’s rainfall lessened the shock of the “Exceptional Drought” back in May.
2013 was the first time Cibola entered the “exceptional” category. The rating lasted for several months before ending.
While the county remained in drought, it was not given the “exceptional” rating again until 2020. The rating was assigned in December, and persisted through most of 2021.
May of 2022 saw the worst “Exceptional Drought” in county history. The United States Drought Monitor tracks the severity and length of drought across the country. The severity of 2022’s “Exceptional Drought” was starkly more severe than either of the previous two times this rating was assigned to Cibola. However, 2022’s situation lasted for a shorter amount of time than either of the previous two instances.
In 2022, Cibola suffered through the driest May over the past 128 years of drought tracking in the county. The area was suffering so badly that scientists who conduct drought tracking declared Cibola was in an “Exceptional Drought” the worst level of drought recognized by the federal government. In June 2022, a large wildfire, the Cerro Bandera Fire, destroyed 939 acres of land in the Zuni Mountains. Fire personnel in Cibola rallied together after the fire, asking for increased fire restrictions through the month of June, especially because the Independence Day holiday was rapidly approaching and residents often celebrate with fireworks. At the time, the drought rating in Cibola was at the highest rating recognized by federal authorities who track drought across the country. Increased rainfall at the end of June, which continued through August, was enough for local governments to lift some firework and open burning restrictions. Rainfall, despite expectations by meteorologists, did not stop fully but has decreased from earlier months. Cibola’s drought conditions have improved measurably since the driest days of 2022.
Drought Data
The National Integrated Drought Information System is a tool used by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; a department of the United States known by many as the team who tracks Santa Claus during the Christmas holiday. NIDIS has been tracking drought in the Cibola area since 2006, and they use other historic data and environmental sampling to get a drought reading on years prior, all the way up to 1894.
Much of the data Cibola Citizen utilizes comes from NIDIS but also NOAA and the US Department of Agriculture and the National Agricultural Statistics Service. These entities supply data for Cibola’s acreage of hay and number of livestock.