Cibola County has seen substantial precipitation and snowpack melt which has contributed to a significant change in drought conditions for the area. Despite the flowing water in Cibola, the dryness of the land coupled with extremely high fire danger are why red flag warnings are issued on a nearly daily basis. Despite high water levels as a result of melting snowpack, the land remains dry and is expected to get drier, which is why Cibola is still considered to be in drought.
Drought conditions changed little over the month. May 2023 was the 58th wettest May in 129 years of data tracking in the area. According to the National Integrated Drought System, May saw 0.12 less inches of rain than usual.
The east, and especially the northeast portion of Cibola, is the only area of the county facing abnormally dry conditions. Currently, 15.8 percent of the county is facing abnormally dry conditions that make agricultural growing more difficult.
From the start of the year, drought conditions have improved in the county, with zero percent of the county being in moderate drought. This is a serious decrease from January, where 0.39 percent of the county was in the “Severe Drought” designation.
The USDA tracks two categories as the worst levels of drought in the county: “Extreme” and “Exceptional” drought. Today, zero percent of Cibola County is in either of those categories.
The northeast area of Cibola is where researchers at the USDA and the US Climate Predictions Center are most concerned drought will persist.
Current Drought Rating The later months of 2022 saw an increase to precipitation which helped to bring Cibola out of serious drought conditions. Thanks to continued precipitation through 2023, Cibola’s drought conditions improved significantly.
According to the United States Department of Agriculture, zero acres of hay are estimated to be in drought, this is the same as February, March, and April. Zero acres of haylage is in drought, this is the same as February, March, and April. The USDA estimates that zero cattle and zero sheep are in drought across Cibola, this is the same as February, March, and April.
“Exceptional Drought” Tracking
Cibola’s rainfall lessened the shock of the “Exceptional Drought” back in May.
2013 was the first time Cibola entered the “exceptional” category, the rating lasted for several months before ending.
While the county remained in drought, it was not given the “exceptional” rating again until 2020. The rating was assigned in December, and persisted through most of 2021.
May of 2022 saw the worst “Exceptional Drought” in county history. The United States Drought Monitor tracks the severity and length of drought across the country. The severity of 2022’s “Exceptional Drought” was starkly more severe than either of the previous two times this rating was assigned to Cibola. However, 2022’s situation lasted for a shorter amount of time than either of the previous two instances.
In 2022, Cibola suffered through the driest May over the past 128 years of drought tracking in the county, the area was suffering so badly that scientists who conduct drought tracking declared Cibola was in an “Exceptional Drought” the worst level of drought recognized by the federal government. In June 2022, a large wildfire, the Cerro Bandera Fire, destroyed 939 acres of land in the Zuni Mountains. Fire personnel in Cibola rallied together after the fire, asking for increased fire restrictions through the month of June, especially because the Independence Day holiday was rapidly approaching and residents often celebrate with fireworks. At the time, the drought rating in Cibola was at the highest rating recognized by federal authorities who track drought across the country. Increased rainfall at the end of June, continued through August, was enough for local governments to lift some firework and open burning restrictions. Rainfall, despite expectations by meteorologists, did not stop fully but has decreased from earlier months. Cibola’s drought conditions have improved measurably since the driest days of 2022.
Drought Data
The National Integrated Drought Information System is a tool used by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; a department of the United States known by many as the team who tracks Santa Claus during the Christmas holiday. NIDIS has been tracking drought in the Cibola area since 2006, and they use other historic data and environmental sampling to get a drought reading on years prior, all the way up to 1894.
Much of the data Cibola Citizen utilizes comes from NIDIS, but also NOAA and the US Department of Agriculture and the National Agricultural Statistics Service. These entities supply data for Cibola’s acreage of hay and number of livestock.
Cibola County has only been in “Exceptional Drought” three times over the past 129 years. The first time was during 2013, the second was in 2021 – this was the longest spell of exceptional drought in county history. The most recent exceptional drought came in May of 2022 and lasted through June, where it spiked, before rainfall cut the worst of the drought short. 2022’s exceptional drought was the shortest, but most dangerous drought in county history.
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Drought conditions have improved significantly across Cibola. Drought still persists in the county, but only the western portion of Cibola is seeing abnormally dry conditions. The county is still considered as being “in drought” on the national drought monitor. 15.8 percent of Cibola is affected by abnormally dry conditions, with zero percent of Cibola in moderate drought. This is a significant change from most of 2022 when a large portion of Cibola was suffering through “Exceptional Drought”, the highest level of drought recognized by the National Integrated Drought Information System.
Courtesy Photo - CC