State of Affairs

As NATO prepares to celebrate its 75th anniversary in Washington next year, it does so from a position of remarkable unity and strength—a stark contrast to the mutual suspicion and uncertainty that clouded trans-Atlantic ties just a few years ago. The alliance's resurgence, driven by a combination of factors, is a testament to its enduring relevance. Yet, as the world grapples with evolving geopolitical challenges, NATO must remain adaptable and cohesive to successfully navigate this ever-changing landscape.

One of the most critical and obvious factors contributing to NATO's resurgence is Russia's invasion of Ukraine. This devastating conflict not only underscored the alliance's core mission of deterring aggression but also led to significant geopolitical shifts in Europe. Finland, long committed to neutrality, made the momentous decision to join NATO, and Sweden is now considering a similar path. These Nordic additions will bolster NATO's position in Northern Europe, providing strategic depth to counter potential threats.

Moreover, Russia's aggression in Ukraine prompted NATO members to significantly increase their defense expenditures in 2023. This marked progress toward fulfilling the alliance's long-standing guideline of dedicating at least two percent of national GDP to defense—a contentious issue between Washington and its European partners. Russia's actions also resulted in a strengthened U.S. military presence and engagement in Europe, reaffirming the United States' commitment to the security of its allies on the continent.

A second major factor shaping NATO's resurgence is the rise of China as a global power. While the United States announced its pivot to Asia in 2011, it took both the European Union and NATO nearly a decade to fully recognize the security implications of China's ascent. NATO's new Strategic Concept, adopted during the Madrid summit in 2022, explicitly identifies China as a challenge to its members' interests, values, and security. Consequently, NATO has become the primary forum for a trans-Atlantic security dialogue on China, facilitating discussions on the evolving dynamics of this geopolitical powerhouse.

The third key element bolstering NATO's resilience is its adaptability to new challenges posed by rapidly advancing technologies and global interdependencies. Economic ties with China and Russia have necessitated a focus on cybersecurity and disruptive technologies, leading to initiatives such as the NATOEU Task Force on Resilience of Critical Infrastructure. As modern threats transcend traditional military domains, NATO has expanded its agenda to address these non-traditional security challenges effectively.

Fourthly, the election of U.S. President Joe Biden has played a pivotal role in fostering smoother cooperation between the United States and its NATO allies compared to the turbulent years of the previous Trump administration. This improved relationship is a testament to both aligned policies and the restoration of trust. A June 2021 Pew Research Center survey revealed that the transition from the Trump presidency to the Biden era significantly improved Washington's international image, particularly among key allies and partners.

While NATO's resurgence is indeed remarkable, it is important to note that it is not the only region experiencing intensified greatpower rivalry. In Asia, countries such as Japan and the Philippines have reinforced their bilateral security agreements with the United States in response to China's rise. The emergence of minilateral formats like the Australia-United Kingdom-United States security pact and the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) has deepened military ties in the Indo-Pacific region. A historic summit among the leaders of Japan, South Korea, and the United States may further expand this grouping, with the potential addition of South Korea to the Quad. China and Russia, on their part, are increasingly aligning their interests and collaborating to counterbalance Western influence.

However, NATO remains unparalleled in terms of its scope, depth, and longevity in fostering military cooperation. Unlike other alliances, which often dissolve when the external security environment shifts, NATO has not only survived the end of the Cold War but has also demonstrated its ability to adapt to new challenges. It has expanded its focus beyond traditional threats, tackling non-traditional security challenges like terrorism and piracy while engaging in out-of-area operations and responding to evolving global dynamics.

Comparatively, the Southeast Asia Treaty Organization (SEATO), a similar military alliance formed during the Cold War, faltered and eventually dissolved. SEATO, established in 1954 to prevent the spread of communism in Southeast Asia, lacked the geographical and political cohesion of NATO. When the security environment in Asia transformed due to the 1971 Indo-Pakistani War and U.S.-China rapprochement, SEATO members began withdrawing, ultimately leading to its dissolution in 1977.

NATO's success and endurance can be attributed to its foundation on strong political cohesion among member states, most of which share core values of democracy and support for the liberal international order. The principles of democracy, individual liberty, and the rule of law are integral to NATO's identity, as evidenced by the alliance's preamble. Even during periods when some member states deviated from these values, the importance of political and nonmilitary cooperation within NATO has been emphasized repeatedly.

However, as NATO approaches its 100th anniversary, it must confront a rapidly evolving geopolitical landscape that presents new challenges:

1. Europe-Only NATO:

The possibility of the United States withdrawing from the alliance, whether to focus on the Indo-Pacific or due to domestic political changes, poses a significant challenge. While Europe once relied on the U.S. security guarantee during the Cold War, the rise of China has shifted the geographic focus to East Asia. Any U.S. withdrawal would force Europe to take responsibility for its own defense, potentially signaling the end of NATO.

2. Global NATO:

A scenario in which both the United States and European allies redirect their attention and resources to Asia to counter China's rise could reshape NATO into a global security actor. However, unlike NATO's previous forays into global security, this time, European member states might need to rebalance significant naval assets to the Indo-Pacific. This shift could leave Europe exposed to Russian assertiveness, potentially causing divisions among European allies.

3. Fragmented NATO:

A fragmented NATO could emerge if members perceive threats differently, pursue disparate interests, or face domestic political pressures. While Russia remains a substantial challenge to European security, it is not as all-encompassing as the Soviet Union once