Cibola Drought Monitor – February Update

While the United States Department of Agriculture still considers Cibola County as “In Drought”, the US National Drought Mitigation Center, a part of the USDA, reports that Cibola County is not currently facing drought-like conditions across the majority of the county, with only the eastern portion of Cibola facing abnormally dry conditions.

Drought conditions became significantly better over the month perhaps because of the significant precipitation. January 2023 was the eighth wettest January in 129 years of drought tracking. January brought 0.98 more inches of rain than normal when compared to 129 years of drought tracking in the area that makes up Cibola County, according to the National Integrated Drought System. Using the same system, February saw 0.2 inches less than normal, but the combined precipitation of the two months has made 2023 the 28th wettest year year in the past 129 years, according to the USDA.

Last month, drought Conditions were to the point where 6,140 people in Cibola are once again in drought areas, this was a 45.7 percent increase from December. Today, the drought situation has improved greatly, to the point where zero – meaning nobody – in Cibola County is currently facing drought-like conditions. Zero percent of people in Cibola County are currently affected by drought.

The east, and especially the northeast portion of Cibola, is the only area of the county facing abnormally dry conditions – not drought conditions, just increased dryness. Currently, zero percent of the county is in drought. Drought means the area is abnormally dry, creating conditions that make agricultural growing more difficult.

Drought conditions have improved in the county, with zero percent of the county being in moderate drought. This is a serious decrease from January, where 0.39 percent of the county was in the “Severe Drought” designation.

The USDA tracks two categories as the worst levels of drought in the county: “Extreme” and “Exceptional” drought. Today, zero percent of Cibola County is in either of those categories.

The northeast area is where researchers at the USDA and the US Climate Predictions Center are most concerned drought will persist.

Current Drought Rating

The later months of 2022 saw an increase to precipitation which helped to bring Cibola out of serious drought conditions. Thanks to continued precipitation through January and February, Cibola’s drought conditions improved significantly over the month.

According to the United States Department of Agriculture, zero acres of hay are estimated to be in drought, this down from 101 acres in January. Zero acres of haylage is in drought, this is up from seven acres in January. The USDA estimates that zero cattle and zero sheep are in drought across Cibola, this is down from 2,319 and 683, respectively, in January.

Despite Cibola County not currently in registering any areas as being in drought, the Climate Prediction Center – an arm of the National Weather Service – says this is rest from drought is not expected to last as drought conditions appear to worsen across the county in coming months. This prediction comes even as Cibola sees an increase to precipitation.

“Exceptional Drought” Tracking

Cibola’s rainfall lessened the shock of the “Exceptional Drought” back in May.

2013 was the first time Cibola entered the “exceptional” category; the rating lasted for several months before ending.

While the county remained in drought, it was not given the “exceptional” rating again until 2020. The rating was assigned in December and persisted through most of 2021.

May of 2022 saw the worst “Exceptional Drought” in county history. The United States Drought Monitor tracks the severity and length of drought across the country. The severity of 2022’s “Exceptional Drought” was starkly more severe than either of the previous two times this rating was assigned to Cibola. However, 2022’s situation lasted for a shorter amount of time than either of the previous two instances.

In 2022, Cibola suffered through the driest May over the past 128 years of drought tracking in the county; the area was suffering so badly that scientists who conduct drought tracking declared Cibola was in an “Exceptional Drought” the worst level of drought recognized by the federal government. In June 2022, a large wildfire, the Cerro Bandera Fire, destroyed 939 acres of land in the Zuni Mountains. Fire personnel in Cibola rallied together after the fire, asking for increased fire restrictions through the month of June, especially because the Independence

Day holiday was rapidly approaching and residents often celebrate with fireworks. At the time, the drought rating in Cibola was at the highest rating recognized by federal authorities who track drought across the country. Increased rainfall at the end of June, continued through August, was enough for local governments to lift some firework and open burning restrictions. Rainfall, despite expectations by meteorologists, did not stop fully but has decreased from earlier months. Cibola’s drought conditions have improved measurably since the driest days of 2022.

Drought Data

The National Integrated Drought Information System is a tool used by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; a department of the United States known by many as the team who tracks Santa Claus during the Christmas holiday. NIDIS has been tracking drought in the Cibola area since 2006, and they use other historic data and environmental sampling to get a drought reading on years prior, all the way up to 1894.

Much of the data Cibola Citizen utilizes comes from NIDIS, but also NOAA and the US Department of Agriculture and the National Agricultural Statistics Service. These entities supply data for Cibola’s acreage of hay and number of livestock.