Cibola Drought Monitor – January Update

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  • Cibola Drought Monitor – January Update
    Cibola Drought Monitor – January Update
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An arm of the national Weather Service, the Climate Prediction Center looks at drought conditions across the United States to predict where the drought may improve, get worse, or stay the same. According to the data from December, the north and eastern portions of Cibola County are expected to remain in drought. This news comes as portions of western Cibola County has received so much precipitation that they are no longer in drought. Courtesy of CPC Drought conditions have improved significantly in Cibola. While drought still persists in the county, the western portion of Cibola is seeing such major improvements that parts of the county are no longer registering as “in drought” on the national drought monitor. 85.58 percent of Cibola is affected by abnormally dry conditions, only 15.48 percent of Cibola is in moderate drought – this is a change from most of 2022 when a large portion of Cibola was suffering through “Exceptional Drought”, the highest level of drought recognized by the National Integrated Drought Information System. Courtesy of CPC

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After significant precipitation, parts of Cibola County are no longer classified as being in drought. Despite this, however, the United States Department of Agriculture still considers Cibola to be an area that is in drought, and they expect the drought to persist through the year, especially in the northeast of the county.

Conditions improved significantly over the month, with December 2022 being the 29th driest December in 128 years of drought tracking. December brought 0.45 more inches of rain than normal when compared to 128 years of drought tracking in the area that makes up Cibola County, according to the National Integrated Drought System.

2022 was the 23rd driest year in 128 years of drought tracking in Cibola. The southwest portion of Cibola is no longer fully in drought. Currently, only 85.58 percent of the county is in drought. Drought means the area is abnormally dry, creating conditions that make agricultural growing more difficult. Despite this, 15.48 percent of the county is in moderate drought. This is the same as November, showing there was no improvement to areas with moderate drought. 0.39 percent of Cibola County, a sliver in the far northeast, is currently in severe drought.

The northeast area is where researchers at the USDA are most concerned drought will persist.

January brings significant improvement to Cibola’s drought conditions, marking an improvement in the county’s drought conditions from just months ago. In 2022, Cibola suffered through the driest May over the past 128 years of drought tracking in the county, the area was suffering so badly that scientists who conduct drought tracking declared Cibola was in an “Exceptional Drought” the worst level of drought recognized by the federal government. In June 2022, a large wildfire, the Cerro Bandera Fire, destroyed 939 acres of land in the Zuni Mountains. Fire personnel in Cibola rallied together after the fire, asking for increased fire restrictions through the month of June, especially because the Independence Day holiday was rapidly approaching and residents often celebrate with fireworks. At the time, the drought rating in Cibola was at the highest rating recognized by federal authorities who track drought across the country. Increased rainfall at the end of June, continued through August, was enough for local governments to lift some firework and open burning restrictions. Rainfall, despite expectations by meteorologists, did not stop fully but has decreased from earlier months. Cibola’s drought conditions have improved measurably since the driest days of 2022.

Today, zero percent of Cibola County is in exceptional drought. 0.39 percent of Cibola is in severe drought, the far northeast area.

Current Drought Rating

Thanks to precipitation in the later months of 2022, Cibola County has seen improvements in drought conditions which have made land more fertile and helped bring thousands of livestock animals out of drought across the county while improving Cibola’s ability to produce food.

According to the United States Department of Agriculture, 69 acres of hay are estimated to be in drought, this is the same as last month. Only five acres of haylage is in drought, this is the same as December and November. The USDA estimates that 1,591 cattle and 468 sheep are in drought across Cibola, this is the same as last month.

Even moderate drought raises the threat of wildfires, according to the USDA. The southwest may no longer be in drought, but its companion in the northeast remains in a more intense situation that is expected to remain in drought for the foreseeable future.

“Exceptional Drought” Tracking

Cibola’s rainfall lessened the shock of the “Exceptional Drought” back in May.

2013 was the first time Cibola entered the “exceptional” category, the rating lasted for several months before ending.

While the county remained in drought, it was not given the “exceptional” rating again until 2020. The rating was assigned in December, and persisted through most of 2021.

May of 2022 saw the worst “Exceptional Drought” in county history. The United States Drought Monitor tracks the severity and length of drought across the country. The severity of 2022’s “Exceptional Drought” was starkly more severe than either of the previous two times this rating was assigned to Cibola. However, 2022’s situation lasted for a shorter amount of time than either of the previous two instances.

Drought Data

The National Integrated Drought Information System is a tool used by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; a department of the United States known by many as the team who tracks Santa Claus during the Christmas holiday. NIDIS has been tracking drought in the Cibola area since 2006, and they use other historic data and environmental sampling to get a drought reading on years prior, all the way up to 1894.

Much of the data Cibola Citizen utilizes comes from NIDIS, but also NOAA and the US Department of Agriculture and the National Agricultural Statistics Service. These entities supply data for Cibola’s acreage of hay and number of livestock.