Diego Lopez, Editor
Editor’s Note: This article was written before a fire destroyed multiple homes in Grants, New Mexico, the county seat of Cibola, on April 28.
CIBOLA COUNTY, N.M. — The drought crisis in Cibola County has entered a dangerous new chapter. Despite isolated showers and cooler weather in parts of New Mexico, drought conditions in Cibola have continued to worsen, with new data showing the full extent of the county’s vulnerability as fire season begins.
As of April 25, federal drought monitors continue to report that every square mile of Cibola County remains in drought. Nearly the entire county—97.32 percent— is now classified in “Severe Drought” (D2), with a small but growing portion, 2.68 percent, now entering the “Extreme Drought” (D3) category.
These classifications are more than just labels—they reflect a growing emergency on the ground. It was only a few months ago, at the start of 2025, when less than half the county was considered to be in serious drought. Now, just four months later, there is no longer a single area in the county untouched by drought. This is the first time Cibola has reached D3 conditions since the back-toback drought disasters of 2022 and 2023.
Climatologists have confirmed that March 2025 ranked as the 61st driest March in the past 131 years. And when taken together, January through March now stand as the 12th driest start to any year on record.
According to the data, Cibola has had less rain and snowfall in 2025, running more than an inch below normal rainfall—and fire season is only beginning.
That dryness is taking a measurable toll on agriculture and livestock. According to estimates from the United States Department of Agriculture, nearly 450 acres of hayfields in Cibola have dried up, along with 30 acres of haylage—another form of animal feed.
Across the county, over 10,000 cattle and more than 3,000 sheep are now grazing in conditions the USDA registers as “drought affected,” in these places, water is scarce and vegetation is stressed, raising the cost of ranching and threatening long-term sustainability.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) maintains an administrative confusion by showing Cibola County as 'not in drought' in certain online portals, despite federally declaring Cibola a drought disaster area on April 18. As of this writing, no formal clarification has been provided by USDA officials in response to inquiries from the Cibola Citizen.
To help ranchers and farmers weather the ongoing drought, the USDA has designated Cibola County as part of a natural disaster area, making producers eligible for emergency assistance programs. Through the Farm Service Agency (FSA), affected landowners can apply for low-interest emergency loans to cover losses tied to the drought— ranging from the replacement of livestock and equipment to the refinancing of debt or the reorganization of their operations.
Cibola’s farmers and ranchers can visit farmers.gov to use the Disaster Assistance Discovery Tool or file a Notice of Loss at their local USDA service center. The application deadline for Cibola drought assistance is December 15, 2025.
Mounting Wildfire Concerns
Adding urgency to the crisis, fire restrictions are now in place across the Mt. Taylor Ranger District.
Stage 1 Fire Restrictions took effect on April 18, prohibiting campfires at dispersed camping sites and severely limiting outdoor burning activities. The Forest Service’s move clarifies what local emergency officials have been warning for weeks: the risk of wildfires is rising daily.
Earlier this month, the Rio Grande Fire near Bosque Farms burned 59 acres before containment efforts were successful. Although Bosque Farms lies roughly 96 miles east of Grants, the rapid spread of fire through dry grasses and bosque fuels serves as a grim reminder of how quickly conditions can deteriorate across western New Mexico. Cibola County Fire Command had dispatched resources to support the extinguishing of this fire, no photos were available from the state.
A compounding factor is the staggering spike in tree mortality statewide. The New Mexico Forestry Division’s 2024 Forest Health Conditions Report found that:
70,000 acres of conifer trees died in 2024 (more than double the 2023 figure); 406,000 acres suffered insect or drought-related damage; 39 percent more trees statewide are losing needles, leaves, or showing visible stress;
Victor Lucero, Forest Health Program Coordinator with the New Mexico Forestry Division, attributed much of the damage to ongoing drought and warmerthan- normal temperatures, creating conditions ripe for insects like the Douglas-fir tussock moth and bark beetles to thrive.
The report also warned that burn scar areas from previous wildfires have become 'crucibles' for insect infestation — a concerning trend for Cibola, where past fires like the Cerro Bandera Fire (2022) and Encerrita Fire (2024) left scars across the Zuni Mountains and nearby regions.
Notably, Stage 2 Fire Restrictions were enacted at Bluewater State Park on April 20. This restrict building, maintaining, attending, or using a fire, campfire, charcoal, coal, or wood stove is prohibited. The use of devices fueled solely by liquid petroleum or LPG fuels that can be turned on and off is allowed. Such devices can only be used in an area that is barren or cleared of all overhead and surrounding flammable materials within three feet of the device.
Water Supplies Faltering
Water conditions are equally troubling.
The Rice Park monitoring station in the Zuni/Bluewater River Basin recorded 0.0 inches of snowpack as of late April, meaning no significant spring runoff will replenish reservoirs.
At Bluewater Lake, the water level measured 9,964 acre-feet as of April 25 — down from 10,040 acre-feet just four days earlier.
Despite the severity of the situation, public sentiment around climate change remains mixed. According to the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication, 64 percent of New Mexico adults are 'worried' about global warming, while 36 percent remain 'not worried'.
Moreover, while most New Mexicans agree that climate change is real and affecting weather patterns, fewer are confident it will impact them personally. Only 48 percent believe they will personally experience harm from climate change.
Local officials stress that community vigilance is critical. Cibola County Fire Marshal Dustin Middleton, Grants Fire Chief Mike Maes, Milan Fire Chief Daniel Urioste, and City of Grants Manager Andrew Valencia have urged residents to follow burn bans, clear vegetation from homes, and prepare emergency evacuation plans.
“Don’t be fooled by a few rainy days,” Milan Village Manager Candi Williams said at a public meeting earlier this year. “We are in drought. We are in fire season. And we have to act like it.”
A visual history of drought in Cibola County since 2000 shows how extreme conditions are becoming more frequent and more intense.
The visual history of Cibola County’s drought over the past quarter century, seen in the NOAA-generated chart, reveals a pattern of intensifying cycles — with longer dry spells, shorter periods of relief, and increasingly frequent incursions into severe and extreme drought categories.
From 2000 to around 2007, the county faced multiple years dominated by Extreme (D3) and Severe Drought (D2), culminating in significant agricultural stress. A brief reprieve followed during the late 2000s, with comparatively mild drought classifications, before another steep decline in moisture began in 2011 — marking one of the most prolonged drought events in recent history.
The 2013–2014 window stands out sharply, with notable incursions into Exceptional Drought (D4)—the most severe level tracked by the U.S. Drought Monitor. This period was punctuated by a lack of snowpack and an uptick in wildfire events, especially in the Zuni Mountains and El Malpais area.
In 2022, Cibola experienced its worst May in over 300 years of historical tracking, pushing nearly half the county into Exceptional Drought. That same year, the Cerro Bandera Fire scorched over 900 acres of forest. Though rainfall improved later that summer, drought conditions returned swiftly in 2023, with another Exceptional Drought designation striking in June.
What sets 2025 apart, as the chart now extends into this year, is the speed of escalation. Whereas earlier droughts ramped up gradually, this year saw Severe Drought (D2) overtake the county in a matter of weeks, and Extreme Drought (D3) make a sudden appearance by late April.
New data from March 2025 shows a vertical rise in intensity not seen in any other year on the timeline.
The Cibola Citizen will continue to monitor drought conditions, forest health, wildfire risks, and the federal disaster response closely.