CIBOLA COUNTY, N.M. — As of November 11, every person, every pasture, and every drop of land in Cibola County remains in drought, according to the latest data from the U.S. Drought Monitor. The total affected population: 27,213.
That number has not changed in weeks—and neither has the intensity of the conditions they’re facing.
More than 13 percent of the county remains in Extreme Drought (D3), while 56 percent is under Severe Drought (D2) and 30 percent is classified as Moderate Drought (D1). No part of the county is listed as Abnormally Dry, let alone drought-free. 100 percent of Cibola remains in official drought status.
These numbers have remained unchanged since late summer, despite passing rains and isolated storms. Federal data still identifies 2025 as the 13th driest year to date out of the last 131, with a rainfall deficit of 3.13 inches below average from January through August. August alone was the 35th driest on record, coming in 0.76 inches short of normal.
Local Impact on Land and Livestock
Federal agriculture models estimate that the current drought affects at least 448 acres of hay, 30 acres of haylage, and directly impacts more than 10,000 cattle and 3,000 sheep grazing in the county. Though fall has softened temperatures, the long-term effects of prolonged dryness continue to play out across pastures and rangeland.
For many ranchers and landowners, the year began with cautious optimism following late 2024 snowfall and early moisture. But by late spring, evaporation rates, low streamflow, and patchy precipitation began carving into those hopes. Summer came and went with scattered relief but no lasting shift. Now, with winter approaching, Cibola’s producers are facing a familiar question: Will this drought roll over into 2026?
Bluewater and Rio San Jose Holding Low
As reported in this week’s Cibola Water Monitoring Report, Bluewater Lake measured 4,695 acre-feet of water as of November 10, down from 4,711 acre-feet on November 8 and nearly 100 acre-feet lower than two weeks ago. Though boating and fishing conditions remain stable, the reservoir has lost more than half its summer volume.
Meanwhile, the Rio San Jose continues its consistent—but limited—flow. The river measured 1.91 feet on November 10, the same level it has maintained since early September. These quiet numbers speak volumes, reflecting a watershed holding steady but operating far below its potential.
With two months left in the calendar year, there is still time for conditions to shift—but any change will depend on sustained, widespread precipitation. While short-term storms may offer temporary relief, especially in terms of soil moisture, experts caution that only prolonged wet periods will make a meaningful dent in the drought’s long-term impact.
As of now, Cibola County remains locked in a pattern that began nearly a year ago, when early 2025 rainfall failed to replenish groundwater and reservoir levels.
The Cibola Citizen will continue to monitor conditions, provide weekly updates, and report on the environmental and economic impacts of drought as the region turns toward winter.
Courtesy Photos