Passionate Potpourri

Recent snowfall has temporarily eased residents’ fears about wildfires and the possibility of water rationing.

More of the state has recently experienced “exceptional drought” than at any previous time when the data is compared with the historical records that extend to 1895, according to the US Drought Monitor.

The poet T. S. Eliot wrote that drought “is the death of the earth.” Crops die, trees wither, and streams and lakes dry up without adequate precipitation.

Humans rely on two water sources underground aquifers and surface water. People have invented ways to move water to where it is needed. Often this has included pumping which can deplete aquifers.

The exceptionally weak 2020 monsoon season meant that most of New Mexico entered the winter with particularly dry soil conditions, according to State Soil Scientist Richard Strait, who records water data. Snow, as measured by the amount of water stored in the snowpack, is important because it is the source of most water supplies. Many areas rely on underground aquifers to supply residents’ needs but more snow increases water levels in rivers and lakes.

When the snows finally fell, the dry soil acted like a sponge, soaking up the moisture and leaving less water available to become snowmelt.

“We haven’t had much in the way of winter rain or snow, which is concerning, as we would hope to put a big dent in the drought,” said Brian Fuchs, a National Drought Mitigation Center climatologist. He predicted increased fire danger for 2021 along with water restrictions, and detrimental effects on small rivers and streams and the wildlife that rely on those ecosystems. Several states have implemented drastic intervention methods in response to the drought which has affected three-quarters of the West.

They are utilizing weather modification technology, cloud seeding, to spur more rainfall. This involves using aircraft or drones to add small particles of silver iodide to clouds. Water droplets cluster around the particles, modifying the structure of the clouds and increasing the chance of precipitation.

This is not a new idea. In the late 1960s and early 1970s, the U.S. military experimented with weather modification as a weapon of war. Operation Popeye aimed to generate enough rainfall to disrupt enemy supply routes in Vietnam. These efforts were short-lived; an international treaty banned the use of weather modification for military purposes in 1977.

Western water managers are faced with the growing threat of shortages. Flow has dwindled in major water systems like the Rio Grande and the Colorado River, which each supply millions of people.

Cloud seeding programs in the upper Colorado River Basin cost approximately $1.5 million annually. The costs are split among Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming, where most of the operations take place, as well as Nevada, California, New Mexico, and Arizona, which also stand to benefit from increased flow on the Colorado River.

The cost-sharing agreement in the Colorado River Basin was finalized in 2018, after states had spent years individually managing their cloud seeding operations. The agreement extends through the fall of 2026, according to scientificamerican.com.

Recent research identified snowfall that “unambiguously” came from cloud seeding, explained Julie Gondzar, Wyoming Water Development Office project manager.

“It is an inexpensive way to help add water to our basins, in small, incremental amounts over long periods of time,” said Gondzar, who added that the technology is an effective method to aid drought-stricken areas “with no negative environmental impacts.”

Other weather experts disagree. The technology is no panacea, given it does not solve the systemic causes of drought. Application is challenging — only certain clouds in certain weather conditions can be seeded with nascent rain. There is no guarantee it will break a drought even if successfully implemented, according to a March 23 article in The Guardian.

Personally, I do not believe technology is the answer.

Arid conditions have been a feature of the Southwest since the 1500s, according to historical records. This region survived five megadroughts, which lasted for decades, between 800 and 1300 Common Era. The 16th century megadrought was the worst in 1,200 years; the second worst drought has occurred within the past two decades. Populations are increasing in the Southwest and groundwater supplies are shrinking.

But we need the precipitation especially for agricultural production. Cibola County has a diverse history, and many people continue to ranch and farm on land that has been in their family for generations. The agricultural industry accounts for three percent of the state’s GDP annually, although that number fluctuates from year to year. Ag generates $3 billion annually and supports 23,000 jobs. Farming, which includes industrial and small-scale operations, is the state’s largest water user.

Irrigation accounted for 76 percent of water withdrawals statewide during 2015, according to the latest report available from the state engineer. New Mexico’s richest crop, pecans, as well as its highest-grossing agricultural sectors, dairy and cattle, all require massive quantities of water. Each dairy cow needs up to 30 gallons of water every day, plus much more water is needed to irrigate the fields where cattle graze. A single pecan tree requires up to 200 gallons of water daily in the warmer months.

The disparity between agriculture’s economic impact and water usage is common throughout the West, acknowledged Page Pegram, a hydrogeologist with the Stream Commission who added that the water rights law has perpetuated this trend. Farmers not receiving their full water rights is a common situation, especially during periods of extended drought. This has caused some agricultural producers to reduce crop production and even forced some out of the industry entirely.

“From a water rights law point of view, all beneficial uses are equal,” said Pegram. “If you’ve been using water for 100 years, it doesn’t matter what you’re using it on the law says that you have a right to continue to use that water.”

This outdated law does not bode well for the future of those who live in this part of the U.S.

People continue moving here despite the lack of rainfall. The population growth in the Southwest was triple the overall U.S. rate for each decade for the past 60 years, 1950-2010.

Increasing the population seems unwise given the region’s history of extreme, multidecadal drought. These conditions will intensify with climate change, according to scientists.

And megadroughts have caused the demise of multiple civilizations in the past, according to https://www.pnas.org/.

This does not have to be our fate if we improve water management strategies and reduce human activities that contribute to climate change.

“Cutting CO2 emissions reduces drought risk,” said Toby Ault, Cornell University drought expert in 2020.